Question

Customers arrive at a shop according to the Poisson distribution with a mean of 10 customers/hour. The manager notes that no customer arrives for the first 3 minutes after the shop opens. The probability that a customer arrives within the next 3 minutes is

Options :

  1. 0.86

  2. 0.61

  3. 0.50

  4. 0.39

Show Answer

Answer :

0.39

Solution :

Customers arrive at a shop according to the Poisson distribution with a mean of 10 customers/hour.

⇒ λ = 10 customers/60 min = 1 customer/6 min = 1/6 customers per minute;

The manager notes that no customer arrives for the first 3 minutes after the shop opens,

⇒ t = 3 min and n = 0;

From the Poisson’s PMF,

The probability of zero customers in 3 minutes will be

P N ( 3 ) ( 0 ) = ( 1 6 3 ) 0 exp ( 1 6 3 ) 0 ! = e 0.5 = 0.606

Now,

The probability that the customer arrives in the next 3 minutes = 1 - P(0)

∴ The probability that the customer arrives in the next 3 minutes = 1 - 0.606

∴ The probability that the customer arrives in the next 3 minutes = 0.39

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